Don’t Look Down: Bitcoin Ready To Re-Test Support Zone At $44K?

Apr 4, 2022

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Don’t Look Down: Bitcoin Ready To Re-Test Support Zone At $44K?

Originally posted here.
By: Reynaldo Marquez

Overview

Bitcoin faces short term downside price action. The first crypto by market cap has been rejected once again as it tries to reclaim the high area around its current levels and could test its next critical support zone. Related Reading | Full Speed Ahead: Ethereum Turns Bullish In The Long Term At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $45,500 with a 2% loss in the last 24-hours and the past week. The benchmark crypto experienced a relief rally into these levels, but bulls have been unable to sustain momentum beyond this period. As Bitcoin trends to the downside, there is around $20 million in bids orders that could operate as support, according to Data from Material Indicators (MI). As seen below, $44,000 holds the biggest support with $11 million in bids orders. MI records intensive selling from Binance order books, inventors have been dumping as much as $50 million in the last day which has contributed with BTC’s price downside action. To the upside, resistance seems heavy and could prevent Bitcoin from reclaiming previous highs. MI records over $40 million in asks or selling orders. The increase in selling pressure suggest the bears could take over the price action, at least, in the short term. If the bulls are able to sustain current levels, which seems unlikely due to the above, BTC’s price could squeeze late shorters and make another run into $48,000 and $50,000. However, Bitcoin has been unable to break above these levels. Since the start of 2022, BTC’s price has been moving in a close range between $35,000 to $48,000. The current relief rally was triggered by more clarity around the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) monetary policy. The rally has been mainly driven by retail investors, in short timeframes, they have been the only investors class buying into this recent price action. This adds up to the potential bearish thesis as retail lack the firepower to sustain these levels. As noted by analyst Will Clemente offered a different perspective: This is a really interesting chart. Retail (0-1 BTC) is currently buying at the second-highest rate in Bitcoin’s history.  Looking at retail’s holdings most spikes have coincided with macro tops, but on several occasions, they have bought strategically. This spike is an outlier. Bitcoin In The Long Term, Retail Buying Marked The Top? As mentioned, the U.S. FED decided to begin its tapering process. This could have long term bearish implications for investors, but the financial institution was within market expectations. This new economic tightening cycle could unfold over the next year. In the meantime, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could benefit from a shift in the current financial system. According to a report from QCP Capital, the global financial system has changed as a result of the confiscation of Russia’s savings. The country invaded Ukraine and the international community responded with this measure. Related Reading | Bitcoin Bullish Signal: 30MA STH-SOPR Returns Above 1 After 4 Months QCP Capital believes this will trigger a demand for neutral, global, and independent assets. The firm said: Cryptocurrencies are quickly becoming an attractive alternative as an independent financial asset that is digitally storable, fungible and insulated from international control. In light of recent events, it is our view that we will soon see a major central bank or severing buy BTC – and that will be long-term bullish as BTC gradually moves towards being a reserve asset.  

The Post

Bitcoin faces short term downside price action. The first crypto by market cap has been rejected once again as it tries to reclaim the high area around its current levels and could test its next critical support zone.

Related Reading | Full Speed Ahead: Ethereum Turns Bullish In The Long Term

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $45,500 with a 2% loss in the last 24-hours and the past week. The benchmark crypto experienced a relief rally into these levels, but bulls have been unable to sustain momentum beyond this period.

BTC’s price moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

As Bitcoin trends to the downside, there is around $20 million in bids orders that could operate as support, according to Data from Material Indicators (MI).

As seen below, $44,000 holds the biggest support with $11 million in bids orders. MI records intensive selling from Binance order books, inventors have been dumping as much as $50 million in the last day which has contributed with BTC’s price downside action.

BTC (blue line) with low support levels (bids orders below price). Source: Material Indicators.

To the upside, resistance seems heavy and could prevent Bitcoin from reclaiming previous highs. MI records over $40 million in asks or selling orders. The increase in selling pressure suggest the bears could take over the price action, at least, in the short term.

If the bulls are able to sustain current levels, which seems unlikely due to the above, BTC’s price could squeeze late shorters and make another run into $48,000 and $50,000. However, Bitcoin has been unable to break above these levels.

Since the start of 2022, BTC’s price has been moving in a close range between $35,000 to $48,000. The current relief rally was triggered by more clarity around the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) monetary policy.

The rally has been mainly driven by retail investors, in short timeframes, they have been the only investors class buying into this recent price action. This adds up to the potential bearish thesis as retail lack the firepower to sustain these levels.

As noted by analyst Will Clemente offered a different perspective:

This is a really interesting chart. Retail (0-1 BTC) is currently buying at the second-highest rate in Bitcoin’s history.  Looking at retail’s holdings most spikes have coincided with macro tops, but on several occasions, they have bought strategically. This spike is an outlier.

Source: William Clemente via Twitter

Bitcoin In The Long Term, Retail Buying Marked The Top?

As mentioned, the U.S. FED decided to begin its tapering process. This could have long term bearish implications for investors, but the financial institution was within market expectations.

This new economic tightening cycle could unfold over the next year. In the meantime, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could benefit from a shift in the current financial system.

According to a report from QCP Capital, the global financial system has changed as a result of the confiscation of Russia’s savings. The country invaded Ukraine and the international community responded with this measure.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Bullish Signal: 30MA STH-SOPR Returns Above 1 After 4 Months

QCP Capital believes this will trigger a demand for neutral, global, and independent assets. The firm said:

Cryptocurrencies are quickly becoming an attractive alternative as an independent financial asset that is digitally storable, fungible and insulated from international control. In light of recent events, it is our view that we will soon see a major central bank or severing buy BTC – and that will be long-term bullish as BTC gradually moves towards being a reserve asset.

 

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